Welcome to Equiformratings

After some thought, I've used the words “test results” rather than “past
results”.

I started working on UK horse racing towards the middle of 2003 so clearly
I didn't produce live results from 1998 onward.

Essentially what I did was to take a model that I had developed in South
Africa and apply it to UK & Irish racing, with adaptation to allow for
jump racing. There are, however, a few differences between SA and the
UK so some changes were necessary.

The test results can be interpreted as follows :

1. Calendar 1998 starts with absolutely no history and can be ignored.
I attribute the fact that top selections made a profit in 1998 to pure
chance. Second to fifth selections did poorly.

2. Calendar 1999 and 2000 were used mostly to test and adapt the model.
As such it's probably best to treat these results with a pinch of salt. In
model building jargon, they can be described as “within sample results”.

3. Calendar years 2001 to 2004 are a better guide to what can be hoped
for in the long term and are “out of sample” or "hold-out" results.

Flat Turf

% Winners In

Year	Races	Top1	Top2	Top3	Top4	Top5	ROI % Top Selection	Avrg field Size
1998	3314	25.4	40.8	53.2	62.9	71.4	+3.01	11.15
1999	3443	25.1	42.2	55.0	65.7	74.8	-0.76	11.30
2000	3355	25.6	42.8	56.5	67.4	74.7	+7.76	11.46
2001	3415	25.6	42.5	54.8	64.8	72.9	-2.70	12.19
2002	3419	25.4	42.9	57.3	67.7	75.3	+4.39	11.56
2003	3625	26.9	43.4	57.6	67.9	75.8	-1.18	10.99
2004	3690	26.0	43.0	55.6	65.7	73.6	+3.80	11.35
Total	24261	25.7	42.5	55.8	65.9	74.1	+2.04

Flat AW

% Winners In

Year	Races	Top1	Top2	Top3	Top4	Top5	ROI % Top Selection	Avrg field Size
1998	926	25.5	42.2	55.5	65.9	74.9	-2.81	9.87
1999	939	27.4	47.1	60.0	71.6	77.6	+1.42	10.26
2000	1018	26.8	46 .0	59.2	70.1	77.2	+3.12	10.57
2001	1039	26.7	44.9	56.6	67.4	74.2	+12.32	11.47
2002	1153	24.6	42.3	55.1	64.2	72.5	+1.09	11.69
2003	1136	23.5	39.4	52.6	63.8	73.5	-4.71	11.52
2004	1547	24.4	39.8	52.2	63.2	71.6	-3.60	10.89
Total	7755	25.4	42.8	55.6	66.3	74.2	+0.65

NH 'Chases

% Winners In

Year	Races	Top1	Top2	Top3	Top4	Top5	ROI % Top Selection	Avrg field Size
1998	1208	29.7	49.1	65.3	76.2	82.7	+6.64	7.91
1999	1230	30.6	51.5	66 .0	76.5	85.4	-1.31	7.81
2000	1193	32.4	53.1	67.6	79.4	86.7	+14.21	7.72
2001	1059	29.7	46.4	60.5	71.4	80.2	+6.99	8.83
2002	1201	30.9	50.4	66.1	77.5	84.0	+5.27	7.93
2003	1251	34.4	52.8	67.8	78.8	86.7	+5.56	7.29
2004	1284	28.7	50.2	64.1	74.5	83.2	-3.42	8.03
Total	8426	30.9	50.6	65.4	76.4	84.2	+4.71

NH Hurdles

% Winners In

Year	Races	Top1	Top2	Top3	Top4	Top5	ROI % Top Selection	Avrg field Size
1998	1687	28.8	45.3	59.2	68.5	75.6	+0.57	10.46
1999	1688	32.1	50.8	63.7	73.3	80.9	+2.44	10.41
2000	1600	31.3	50.5	64.2	74.9	81.4	+0.59	10.40
2001	1425	29.3	48.1	61.8	72.1	79.4	+10.26	11.81
2002	1610	30.7	50.2	63.9	74.0	80.7	-2.09	10.78
2003	1687	33.2	52.5	65.1	74.5	81.6	+3.52	10.23
2004	1714	29.2	48.9	61.5	72.2	78.9	+1.03	11.41
Total	11411	30.7	49.5	62.8	72.8	79.8	+2.19

NH Hunter 'Chases

% Winners In

Year	Races	Top1	Top2	Top3	Top4	Top5	ROI % Top Selection	Avrg field Size
1998	132	28.8	47.7	54.5	68.2	76.5	-17.26	9.04
1999	128	32.0	48.4	60.9	68.0	75.8	+6.45	10.38
2000	136	27.2	51.5	64.0	72.8	80.1	-16.35	10.15
2001	87	14.9	31.0	39.1	52.9	57.4	-47.84	14.45
2002	128	32.8	48.4	67.2	75.8	79.7	+11.79	10.15
2003	122	31.1	46.7	63.1	71.3	80.3	-24.91	9.62
2004	125	28.8	46.4	63.2	76.0	83.2	-5.98	9.97
Total	858	28.6	46.5	59.8	70.0	77.0	-11.79

NHF

% Winners In

Year	Races	Top1	Top2	Top3	Top4	Top5	ROI % Top Selection	Avrg field Size
1998	167	21.0	34.1	39.5	46.1	53.3	-9.97	14.36
1999	174	29.3	45.4	53.4	63.8	71.3	+10.31	13.41
2000	168	26.8	38.1	51.8	62.5	69.0	-11.11	13.65
2001	157	21.7	36.9	47.8	56.7	67.5	-23.34	15.06
2002	179	29.6	45.8	56.4	62.6	68.2	-1.01	13.91
2003	203	24.1	42.4	55.2	67.0	73.4	-23.02	12.77
2004	212	24.5	36.3	44.8	54.7	66.5	-19.40	13.51
Total	1260	25.3	39.9	49.9	59.2	67.2	-11.40

Summary 1998 - 2004

Winners In

Code	Races	Top1	Top2	Top3	Top4	Top5	ROI % Top Selection
Flat Turf	24261	6240	10320	13526	15988	17986	+2.04
Flat AW	7755	1971	3319	4308	5138	5758	+0.65
NH 'Chases	8426	2607	4262	5513	6439	7095	+4.71
NH Hurdles	11411	3501	5648	7162	8304	9103	+2.19
NH Hunter 'Chases	858	245	399	513	601	661	-11.79
NHF	1260	310	503	529	746	847	-11.40
Total	53971	14874 27.6%	24451 45.3%	31551 58.5%	37216 69%	41450 76.8%	+1.76