An analysis of seasonality could have been included in
the section Test Results
but I didn't want it to
be lost in a litany of numbers.
Many racing pundits believe that the early period of flat
racing in a typical UK
calendar year is difficult to analyse.
In fact, the results for the month of April
over the period
1998 to 2004 confirm this, for both strike rate and ROI%.
The month of October, with the flat season tailing
off and the winter jump
season starting, also seems to produce below
average results, but not as poor
as during
the start of the flat season.
Analysis :
| MONTH | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
STRIKE RATE | 0.272 | 0.291 | 0.277 | 0.246 | 0.281 | 0.278 | 0.279 | 0.281 | 0.272 | 0.262 | 0.289 | 0.276 |
ROI% | -2.34 | +1.38 | -0.03 | -6.90 | +5.68 | +4.01 | +1.01 | +4.99 | +5.37 | -1.09 | +1.47 | +4.11 |
The average strike rate over the period was 0.276 with an ROI of +1.76%.
The month of April is further analysed as follows:
| Type of Race | Wins | Races | Strike | Profit | ROI% |
Flat Turf | 384 | 1724 | 0.223 | -265.76 | -15.42 |
All Other | 668 | 2550 | 0.262 | -29.35 | -1.15 |
Total | 1052 | 4274 | 0.246 | -295.11 | -6.90 |
