Welcome to Equiformratings

In 1969 I was employed by Firestone in Port Elizabeth as a trainee computer
programmer. It was my first real job, having graduated as a B.Sc. (maths &
applied maths) at the University of Stellenbosch the year before.

Fred, my elder brother, was studying pharmacology at Rhodes University at
the time, and he and a few of his friends would drive through to Port Elizabeth
most Saturdays to go racing. It didn't take much encouragement for me to join
them.

Two things struck me. Firstly, my brother usually seemed to do better than any
of his mates. Secondly, it seemed to me that the flow of information used for
decision making purposes was far more regular and became available far sooner
after the event than was the case for information about companies with shares
listed on the stock exchange.

Later that year I saw an advertisement for a job in Cape Town, for someone
with a degree in mathematics. The job required that the successful applicant
embark upon an actuarial career and I applied, successfully. Whilst it wasn't
a major consideration it passed through my mind that an actuarial background
would help with any attempt I may make to analyse horse racing, and with
games of chance in general.

I became an Associate of the Institute of Actuaries in 1978 and it was around
this time that I came across some mathematics that I could use to develop a
method of estimating the probability of a horse winning a race.

The approach was tedious and far too complex for manual calculation but I
managed to express it as a formula, which I kept. I also managed to program
a programmable calculator to calculate rough approximations of probabilities.

In the early 1980's I switched from the actuarial game to the financial markets.
By then home computers were starting to become popular and I bought my first,
an Apple II Plus, at the end of 1981.

Around the middle of the eighties, my brother Fred wrote some software to
build a data base, and to produce what I now know are called 'ratings'. He
modelled them using Dick Whitford's concepts. He was living in Cape Town
at the time (I was in Johannesburg) but we started collaborating in early 1990.

Tragically, Fred died as a result of a freak cycling accident in October 1990,
and my interest in horse racing more or less petered out. I did make the odd
attempt at analysis, but never got very far.

Then, in the year 2000, I was contacted by the new chairman of a bookmaking
operation that was listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange. He remembered
my sporadic attempts at horse racing analysis from my days on the JSE (we had
dealt against each other in the bond market) and asked me whether I would be
interested in doing some consulting work for him.

The consulting never really got off the ground, but his approach did cause me to
renew contact with the chap my brother worked with when he wrote the software
in the mid 1980's and I was delighted to discover that the data base had been
maintained.

And so began a serious attempt at horse racing analysis, which was to lead
indirectly to the establishment of this website.

Settlement in the UK :

My wife and I arrived at Heathrow on 21 April 2005 and now live in the Surrey
coutryside together with our two youngest daughters.



Home Betting Markets Betting Software History Member's Area Methodology Printout Proofing Ratings & Results Results Latest Results 2008 Results 2007 Results 2006 Results 2005 Seasonality Subscription Test results	In 1969 I was employed by Firestone in Port Elizabeth as a trainee computer programmer. It was my first real job, having graduated as a B.Sc. (maths & applied maths) at the University of Stellenbosch the year before. Fred, my elder brother, was studying pharmacology at Rhodes University at the time, and he and a few of his friends would drive through to Port Elizabeth most Saturdays to go racing. It didn't take much encouragement for me to join them. Two things struck me. Firstly, my brother usually seemed to do better than any of his mates. Secondly, it seemed to me that the flow of information used for decision making purposes was far more regular and became available far sooner after the event than was the case for information about companies with shares listed on the stock exchange. Later that year I saw an advertisement for a job in Cape Town, for someone with a degree in mathematics. The job required that the successful applicant embark upon an actuarial career and I applied, successfully. Whilst it wasn't a major consideration it passed through my mind that an actuarial background would help with any attempt I may make to analyse horse racing, and with games of chance in general. I became an Associate of the Institute of Actuaries in 1978 and it was around this time that I came across some mathematics that I could use to develop a method of estimating the probability of a horse winning a race. The approach was tedious and far too complex for manual calculation but I managed to express it as a formula, which I kept. I also managed to program a programmable calculator to calculate rough approximations of probabilities. In the early 1980's I switched from the actuarial game to the financial markets. By then home computers were starting to become popular and I bought my first, an Apple II Plus, at the end of 1981. Around the middle of the eighties, my brother Fred wrote some software to build a data base, and to produce what I now know are called 'ratings'. He modelled them using Dick Whitford's concepts. He was living in Cape Town at the time (I was in Johannesburg) but we started collaborating in early 1990. Tragically, Fred died as a result of a freak cycling accident in October 1990, and my interest in horse racing more or less petered out. I did make the odd attempt at analysis, but never got very far. Then, in the year 2000, I was contacted by the new chairman of a bookmaking operation that was listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange. He remembered my sporadic attempts at horse racing analysis from my days on the JSE (we had dealt against each other in the bond market) and asked me whether I would be interested in doing some consulting work for him. The consulting never really got off the ground, but his approach did cause me to renew contact with the chap my brother worked with when he wrote the software in the mid 1980's and I was delighted to discover that the data base had been maintained. And so began a serious attempt at horse racing analysis, which was to lead indirectly to the establishment of this website. Settlement in the UK : My wife and I arrived at Heathrow on 21 April 2005 and now live in the Surrey coutryside together with our two youngest daughters.